Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺

#2 — February 2024 (late edition)

Mar 06, 2024

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Europe Elects: Empowering European Citizens

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European Parliament (EP) seats projection

The next European Parliament election will happen between 6-9 June 2024. European citizens will once again elect the legislative body of the EU. With the last election having taken place back in 2019, we are certain to see substantial shifts in plenty of countries.

Europe Elects continues providing the most accurate projections of the next European Parliament—and doing so free of charge!

The latest projection (from February 2024) can be found here.

EPP: 181 (-6)

S&D: 140 (-7)

ID: 92 (+16)

ECR: 83 (+21)

RE: 82 (-16)

G/EFA: 49 (-25)

LEFT: 45 (+4)

NI: 44 (-13)

Unaffiliated: 4 (+4)

+/- vs. 2019 EU Parliamentary Elections

Notable Changes (for January & February)

GUE/NGL (LEFT) is the biggest winner in recent months, gaining nine seats up to 45. The main gains come from two parties: one is the new German Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Für Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit with an expected five seats. Another is the Italian Sinistra Italiana, who are expected to be represented again with two seats.
The most important gains for the ECR group are due to the new affiliation of the French Reconquête, which is projected to win five seats. In addition to this, Italian Fratelli d’Italia are also projected to have two seats more than they did in January — for a total increase of 19 over their 2019 (post-Brexit) seats.

European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State

Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union.

The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.

Notable Updates

Coalition talks in the Netherlands are STILL ongoing after snap elections in November. Mark Rutte (VVD-RE) announced his resignation as PM in July 2023 but is currently serving as a caretaker, while talks about who will succeed him are ongoing. The most likely result looks like some configuration of the Party for Freedom (PVV-ID), People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD-RE), Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB→EPP), and New Social Contract (NSC→EPP).

Electoral Calendar 2023/2024

Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up?

Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year.

https://europeelects.eu/calendar/

Some Upcoming elections

Portugal (National Parliament): 10 March
Russia (President — first round): 17 March
Slovakia (President — first round): 23 March

Recent Elections

Azores (Portugal): The centre-right/conservative government of the Azores held on to control of the regional assembly. However, the results may be a bellwether for what Portugal’s ruling Socialist Party (PS-S&D) and insurgent right-wing Chega! (ID) can expect from next month’s parliament election. The Socialists’ vote share fell 5 points while Chega!’s grew by 4. PS has been embroiled in a corruption investigation that continues to loom over its leadership.
Sardinia (Italy): The centre-left candidate Alessandra Todde (M5S-NI) defeated right-wing candidate Paolo Truzzu (FdI-ECR) This is the first centre-left coalition gain from the right-wing coalition in a regional election since 2015. Five Star Movement (M5S-NI) is set to win its first regional presidency ever.

Polling Highlights

Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls

In France, the government coalition Ensemble (RE) fell to 15% in the new Stack Data Strategy European Parliament election poll. This is the lowest poll result ever recorded for the coalition and its leading party Renaissance (RE-RE).
In Greece, far-right Voice of Reason (FL-*) appears in a national poll for the first time—with 0.9% in the latest Metron Analysis poll. This is below the electoral threshold of 3% needed to receive representation in parliament. The party was established in 2023 by Afroditi Latinopoulou and received 0.4% in the June 2023 election. Meanwhile, New Left (NA-LEFT), a parliament group formed by MPs that split off from SYRIZA (LEFT), received a record high of 5.1% in the latest Interview poll.
In Estonia, centrist Estonian Centre Party (KE-RE) reaches a record low of 8% in the latest Turu-uuringute poll. If repeated in a national parliament election, this would be the party's worst result since its foundation in 1991. This mirrors the decline of other RE parties in the country, with the Estonian Reform Party (RE-RE) and Estonia200 (E200→RE) also registering record lows on our polling average.
In Germany, the Green Party (Grüne-G/EFA) has hit a six-year low of 12.78% on our polling average. The last time the Green Party averaged below 13% was July 2018.