Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺
#7 — July 2024
What’s up, Europe? As promised, in this edition we’ll be analyzing the incoming EU parliament in-depth, including the new groupings, as well as results from elections in the UK, France, and Belgium.
We’re trying something a little different for this edition — I’ve asked our correspondents to share their thoughts and included them below. Each correspondent is insightful, and I highly encourage you to follow their work on social media. But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:
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Belgian Elections Aftermath
Courtesy of Nassreddin Taibi — Europe Elects Belgium Correspondent
On 9 June, Belgians voted in six elections, one of which was for the national parliament.
Most surprising was Wallonia's shift to the centre-right. For a second time, the liberal Reformist Movement (MR-RE) dethroned the centre-left Socialist Party (PS-S&D) as the region’s largest party, winning 28%. Centrist The Committed (LE-RE) gained the most of all parties, doubling its score from a record low in 2019 to 20%. The left-wing Workers’ Party (PTB-LEFT) suffered minor losses, while green Ecolo (E-G/EFA) saw its support halve to 8%.
National-conservative New Flemish Alliance (N VA-ECR) remained the largest party of Flanders with a quarter of votes, followed closely by right-wing Flemish Interest (VB-PfE) at 22%. As opposed to its sister party MR, the Dutch-speaking liberal Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open VLD-RE) achieved a record low result of 8%. Unlike in Wallonia, the combined Flemish left grew thanks to gains from the center-left Forward (Vooruit-S&D), which earned 14%, and the left-wing Workers’ Party (PVDA-LEFT), which received 8%.
These different trends might split the traditional political families. MR is determined to enter the new government, while Open VLD is hesitant. Similarly, PS announced it will not participate in a new government, while Vooruit is still open to doing so. Current negotiations are ongoing between N VA, MR, CD&V, LE, and Vooruit.
EU Elections Aftermath
Courtesy of Mingo Garscha — Europe Elects EU Correspondent
The European Parliament elections not only brought many new MEPs to Strasbourg and Brussels but also saw the formation of new political groups. In addition to six of the groups that existed before the election (centre-right EPP, centre-left S&D, national-conservative ECR, liberal RE, Greens/EFA, and LEFT), two new groups were formed. The right-wing Patriots for Europe (PfE) replaces the ID group formed around Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Matteo Salvini's Lega (L), and includes two prominent new members: Victor Orbán's Fidesz and Andrej Babiš' ANO 2011. Together, they are now the third largest group, surpassing Giorgia Meloni's ECR and Emanuel Macron's RE.
On their right, another group has formed, the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN). Its largest member by far is Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), which provides more than half of its MEPs. Other members include Bulgaria's Revival (V) and Poland's New Hope (NN) . They are by far the smallest group in the European Parliament, with almost half the MEPs of the next smallest group, the Left, which now includes the Italian Five Star Movement (M5S).
In total, there are now eight groups in the Parliament, including 687 of the 720 MEPs. The other 33 sit as Non-Inscrits.
French Elections Aftermath
Courtesy of Matthias Troude — Europe Elects France Correspondent
At the beginning of the month, the French were called to the polls after President Emmanuel Macron surprisingly dissolved the National Assembly following his side’s poor result in the European Parliament election. The first round more or less repeated the pattern of 9 June, with Ensemble (RE) lagging behind the New Popular Front (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D) and the National Rally (RN-ID). A surge in turnout, though, prompted a majority (306 out of 501) of runoffs to feature three candidates – a scenario that strongly benefitted the RN since it upended the traditional anti-lepéniste behaviour of voting for whoever was facing RN candidate.
Following a remarkable effort from centre-right, centrist, and left-wing candidates, almost all of these three-way runoffs were turned into duels. Third-place candidates were encouraged to drop out in a scheme known as the “Republican front” in order to consolidate the anti-RN vote. Such moves lowered the total number of RN seats from an almost absolute projected majority to a mere 142 seats, making it the third largest block in the lower chamber.
As Emmanuel Macron put it, however, “no one won.”
The NFP’s majority is really slim and will need support from other groupings to govern. France has thus been waiting for a Prime Minister. The past government is currently staying on in a caretaker capacity, while the NFP finally settled on Lucie Castets, a nonpartisan public servant, as their PM candidate. Insisting on an “Olympic truce”, Macron refused to appoint her. In the meantime, Ensemble and The Republicans (LR-EPP) might come to a government agreement. Or, as they put it, a “legislative pact”.
UK Elections Aftermath
Courtesy of Mathew Nicolson — Europe Elects UK Correspondent
The UK national parliament election on 4 July brought an end to 14 years of Conservative (CON~ECR) rule and ushered in a new centre-left Labour (LAB-S&D) government led by Keir Starmer. Labour won a landslide majority with 411/650 seats, comparable to former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s (LAB-S&D) landslides in 1997 and 2001. As a result of the first-past-the-post electoral system, this landslide was achieved on a relatively low vote share of just 33.7%, the lowest vote share any UK party has ever won a majority with.
Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives were reduced to just 121 seats and 23.7% of the vote – the party’s worst result in its 200-year history. The pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP-G/EFA) also suffered severe losses, losing 39 of the 48 seats it held at the last election, mainly to Labour. The Liberal Democrats were the other main winners of the election, surging from 11 seats in 2019 to 72 seats in this election. This is the party’s best result in its modern iteration and the best result for a UK liberal party since 1923. The Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW-G/EFA) also increased its seat tally from 1 to 4, while Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK (REFORM~NI) entered the national parliament for the first time with 5 seats on 14.3% of the vote. The election also featured an unusually high number of successful independent candidates, including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (*~S&D).
With such a large governing majority, the UK now appears set for a period of relative stability compared to the political turmoil of the past decade.
European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State
Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union.
The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.
With the creation of the right-wing Patriots for Europe (PfE), our European Council charts have some changes — despite the specific member not changing its leadership at all. We are, of course, referring to Hungary and Viktor Orbán (FIDESZ-PfE), which we had counted as Non-inscrits alongside Slovakia’s Robert Fico (SMER-NI) since both leaders and their parties were suspended from the EPP and S&D groupings, respectively. Below, you can see what the current composition of the European Council looks like, as well as its membership weighted by population.
Notable Updates
Bulgaria: President Rumen Radev (S&D) has asked There Is Such a People (ITN-ECR) to form a government after both Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB-EPP) and We Continue the Change (PP-RE) failed to do so. If ITN is unable to do so, Bulgarians would have to endure their seventh parliament election since 4 April 2021. The most recent Bulgarian parliament election was held on 9 June 2024 and saw a turnout of just 33.40% — the lowest in Bulgaria’s modern democratic history.
Estonia: Kristen Michal (RE-RE) has been sworn in as Estonia’s newest Prime Minister. His predecessor, Kaja Kallas (RE-RE) is waiting to start as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
European Union: Ursula von der Leyen (CDU-EPP) has been re-elected as president of the European Commission. Roberta Metsola (PN-EPP) was also reelected as president of the European Parliament.
Netherlands: Hendrikus “Tricky Dick” Shoof (unaffiliated) has finally been confirmed as the Netherlands’ next prime minister. 223 days have passed between the 2023 Dutch elections and Shoof’s investiture on 2 July 2024.
Electoral Calendar 2023/2024
Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up?
Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year.
https://europeelects.eu/calendar/
Some Upcoming elections
Switzerland (Shaffhouse regional — first round): 18 August
Polling Highlights
Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls
Greece: Course of Freedom (PE-NI) has hit an all-time record high with 5.7% in the latest Metron Analysis poll. If repeated in an election, it would be the party’s highest result since it was founded in 2016 by former parliament speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou.
Estonia: Right-wing Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE-PfE) has fallen to 11.0% in the latest Norstat poll,—the lowest polling result obtained by the party since June 2017. This follows a move by the party board to expel several key members ahead of the party’s leadership election last month. If repeated in a national parliament election, this would be the party’s worst result since 2015. Meanwhile, national-conservative Fatherland (I-EPP) has climbed to 33.7% in the same poll. This is the party’s highest polling result in at least 13 years. If repeated in a national parliament election, this would be the party's best result since its formation in 2006.
Germany: the Greens (GRÜNE-Greens/EFA) have fallen to their lowest polling number since April 2018 — 10%, according to an INSA poll.
Türkiye: Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP-*) has reached a new record high of 8.2% in the latest TÜSİAR poll. This is the first time ever in a national poll that the party is above the electoral threshold (7%) to enter parliament individually.
Featured article
Take a look at our recent articles on Europe Elects and our correspondents for Euractiv.
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