Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺

#10 — October 2024

What’s up, Europe? 2024 is rushing for the exit, but we still have so many elections left to cover. As promised, in this edition we cover news out of Austria, Germany, and Bulgaria in depth. We’ve decided to punt Georgia and Moldova until next month so we can get a better view of how things shake out in relation to accusations of fraud in both elections. But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:

Truth in Polling Project

Europe Elects: Truth in Polling (EETIP) is a publicly available database of pollsters in each European country, assessing essential information related to their activities. With this project, we aim to promote transparency in the polling industry, as well as deepen dialogue with political pollsters in countries of the European Political Community with the goal of reviewing their work collaboratively with them.

This project is supported by the European Media and Information Fund

Learn more here.

Austria Parliament Election Aftermath

Matías Pino Cabeza contributed to this analysis

The right-wing Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ-PfE) emerged from September’s Austrian national parliament election as the largest party for the first time in its history. FPÖ capturing nearly 29% of the vote—a 12-point increase from the 2019 election.

Their growth has come at the expense of the ruling centre-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP-EPP) which saw its vote share drop by 11 points since the last election, resulting in one of the worst outcomes in its history. Nevertheless, the ÖVP remains the king-maker in negotiations around government formation. The party must now decide whether to enter into a government with the FPÖ or, alternatively, to cobble together an alliance with other parties, such as the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ-S&D).

FPÖ’s triumph continues the trend of right-wing parties gaining ground across Europe. Alongside the Party for Freedom’s (PVV-PfE) victory in the Netherlands’ elections in late 2023 and the National Rally (RN-PfE) emerging as the leading party in France’s legislative elections this year, the FPÖ is now the third party within the Patriots for Europe group to become the most-voted party nationwide in the last year.

Bulgaria Parliament Election Aftermath

Bulgaria’s seventh election in three years didn’t prove any more decisive than the previous six. For the fourth straight election, the centre-right party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov — Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB-EPP) — came first with 69 seats. In order to form a government, GERB would need at least 52 more seats, however other parties remain hesitant to work with the party due repeated accusations of corruption and dissatisfaction with Borisov in particular. Borisov was prime minister from 2009 until 2013 and then from 2014 until January 2017 and then again from May 2017 until 2021. Each time his premiership ended under the cloud of mass protests and scandal, only for Borisov to rebound. Since 2021, Bulgaria has struggled to maintain a cohesive government, in part because despite the opposition’s reluctance to work with GERB, the electoral math doesn’t really work without them.

This month’s election is a perfect example of that problem. Bulgaria’s second largest political force, the centrist electoral alliance We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB-RE|EPP), earned 37 seats followed by far-right Revival (V-ESN) with 35. GERB needs just 52 of the remaining 171 seats to form a government. But, Borisov has said he won’t work with V and PP-DB may be hesitant to work with GERB after being burned during the last government. That leaves 99 possible seats to pick up.

30 of those seats are held by liberal and Turkish minority interest party, Movement for Rights and Freedoms – A New Beginning (DPS-NN-RE) which is led by US and UK sanctioned oligarch, Deylan Peevski. Including Peevski in a coalition is risky and PP-DB has called on parties to exclude his group from any government. Without DPS-NN, that leaves 69 seats.

The centre-left Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP-S&D) has 20 seats and might work with GERB …… but only if BSP’s smaller electoral allies agree and that raises the possibility of ideological friction between them and GERB’s right wing platform. Furthermore, BSP and PP-DB don’t necissarily get along so it might be one or the other. Putting BSP in the maybe column, that leaves GERB with between 69 and 89 seats, needing between 52 and 32 more.

Of the remaining seats available, 19 belong to liberal and Turkish minority interest party Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS-RE). APS and DPS-NN both claim to be the rightful successor to the original DPS which APS accuses Deylan Peevski (who is not Turkish) of hijacking for his own political gain. In addition to absolutely not wanting to work with Peevski, APS says that it would work with GERB in a Euro-Atlanticist coalition. That might be a dig at BSP which is pretty pro-Russia. So 30 seats left — things are getting tight for GERB.

The last two parties who entered parliament, anti-establishment There Is Such a People (ITN-ECR) and right-wing Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh-*), neither are particularly interested in working GERB. ITN started as protest movement against Borisov and MECh is a right-wing anti-establishment party that campaigned on anti-corruption.

That basically leaves only one viable choice for GERB: a coalition government with APS and PP-DB. Together the three groupings would have 125 votes, 4 above the 121 majority needed. However, such a coalition would require Borisov and GERB to cut any ties with Peevski (which might be hard for Borisov as the two have a personal relationship). Theoretically, GERB could form a government with V and DPS-NN, but that’s really unlikely. V is a far-right nationalist party and DPS-NN is (ostensibly) supposed to advocate for Bulgaria’s Turkish minority. Not exactly pals.

Germany Regional Election Aftermath

Polychronis Karampelas contributed to this analysis

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD-ESN) saw its vote share rise in all three regional state elections that took place in September — landing it once again in second place in Brandenburg and Saxony and for the first time in first place in Thuringia. At the same time, the new left-conservative Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht – For Reason and Justice (BSW-NI), faced its first large electoral test in regional state elections — reaching third place in all three contests.

In Brandenburg, which saw the largest growth in voter turnout compared to 2019 of the three contests, the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD-S&D) narrowly beat AfD, 30.9% to 29.2% and 32 total seats to AfD’s 30. BSW came in third with 13.5% and 14 seats. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU-EPP) had its worst-ever result in the region earning 12.1% and 12 seats. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP-RE) also had its worst result in any regional election since its foundation in 1948 garnering only 0.83% of the vote and zero seats. The green GRÜNE (G/EFA), the left-wing Die Linke (LEFT), and the local Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters (BVB/FW~RE) also had significant drops in vote share, losing all representation in the regional parliament.

Lithuania Parliament Election Aftermath

Rithwik Narendra contributed to this analysis

Lithuanians went to polls this month to elect their national parliament in two rounds of voting. The ruling centre-right coalition of centre-right Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS LKD-EPP), centrist Freedom Party (LP-RE), and liberal Liberals’ Movement (LS-RE) headed into the election with flagging poll numbers and were widely expected to lose their majority.

After the second-round seats were allocated, the governing coalition saw its 72 seats reduced to just 40. TS LKD won 28 seats, LS won 12 seats, and LP completely failed to remain in parliament. In the wake of the party’s poor performance, TS LKD party leader Gabriel Landsbergis resigned and opted not to take the list seat he had won, thereby leaving parliament. By comparison, the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP-S&D) recorded its strongest performance in history, winning 52 seats, and is expected to lead the next government.

Meanwhile, populist right-wing Political Party “Dawn of Nemunas” (PPNA-*) came in third, netting 20 seats. The centrist and green Lithuanian Farmers and Green Union (LVŽS-ECR) almost missed out on open-list seats altogether, barely exceeding the 7% threshold for lists while the green and centre-left Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” (DSVL-Greens/EFA), which split from LVŽS in 2022, performed much stronger, winning 14 seats. The right-wing National Alliance (NS→ECR) also won a seat for the first time.

European Parliament (EP) seats projection

It’s been a little over two months since the 2024 European Elections — so clearly, it’s time to look toward the next one in 2029.

The latest projection can be found here.

EPP: 183 (-5)

S&D: 137 (+1)

PfE: 98 (+14)

ECR: 76 (-2)

RE: 82 (+5)

G/EFA: 34 (-19)

LEFT: 52 (+7)

NI: 28 (-4)

ESN: 28 (+3)

Unaffiliated: 2 (+2)

+/- vs. 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections

European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State 

Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union. 

The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.

Below, you can see the European Council's current composition, as well as its membership weighted by population.

Notable Updates 

• Austria, Belgium, and Lithuania are all negotiating new governments — Bulgaria is as well, but who knows. With Romania voting later this year, watch for some major changes to who sits on the European Council.

Electoral Calendar 2023/2024

Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up? 

Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year. 

https://europeelects.eu/calendar/

Some Upcoming elections

• Moldova (Presidential-second round): 3 November

• Romania (Presidential-first round): 24 November

• Iceland (National parliament): 30 November

Polling Highlights 

Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls. 

• Germany: the Greens (GRÜNE-G/EFA) continue to shed voters, achieving just 9% in a recent Forsa poll, their lowest level of support since November 2017. The party earned 14% in the 2021 German national parliament elections.
  

• Greece: left-wing to centre-left Coalition of the Radical Left-Progressive Alliance (SYRIZA-LEFT) falls to 8.5% in the latest Metron Analysis poll. This is the party’s lowest polling result since April 2012, and if repeated in an election, it would be its lowest election result since 2009. The party is amidst a leadership contest as Stefanos Kasselakis, elected party leader in September 2023, was ousted by the party’s Central Committee.
  

• Hungary: Péter Magyar's newly-formed centre-right Respect and Freedom (TISZA-EPP) has reached 36% in our polling average, just 7pp below the governing coalition of right-wing Fidesz–Hungarian Civic Union(Fidesz-PfE) and right-wing Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP-PfE). This is the highest an individual opposition party has polled since our average began in 2018.
  

• Iceland: ahead of snap elections in the November, three polls came out showing a number of parties scoring their highest and lowest levels of support ever. Centre to centre-right Liberal Reform Party (C-RE) rises to 16.2% in the latest Maskína poll. This is the highest poll result for C ever. If repeated in a national parliament election, it would be the party’s best electoral result. In a Prósent poll from earlier this month, centre-right Independence Party (D-EPP) and centre-left to left-wing Left-Green Movement(V~LEFT|RE) fell to 12% and 3% respectively. Those numbers represent both parties' lowest polling result ever and, if repeated in a national parliament election, would be their worst-ever electoral result. And finally, a Gallup poll from the beginning of the month has the centre-right to right-wing Progressive Party (B~RE) falling to 6.2% while centre-right Centre Party (M~EPP|RE) rising to 18.7%. This would be the lowest poll result and the highest for B and M, respectively, ever.
  

• Moldova: centre-right Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS-EPP) reached an all-time record high of 58.3% in a CBS Research poll. The party won 52.80% of the vote in the 2021 election.
  

• Türkiye: centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP-S&D) reached a new record high in the latest SONAR poll: 36.6%. The party finished first in nationwide results of the latest local elections this year and continues to lead in general election polls ahead of right-wing Justice and Development Party (AKP~NI).

Latest Podcast and Articles

• EE Podcast: France and Germany dominate European politics (but not the EU)

• Will Georgia Flip? A High-Stakes Election Amidst Political Polarisation

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