Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺
#5 — May 2024
What’s up, Europe? Only 3 days until the first day of the EU Parliament election. In the meantime, there are lots of national elections worth covering. But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:
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European Parliament (EP) seats projection
The next European Parliament election will happen between 6-9 June 2024. European citizens will once again elect the legislative body of the EU. With the last election having taken place back in 2019, we are certain to see substantial shifts in plenty of countries.
Europe Elects continues providing the most accurate projections of the next European Parliament—and doing so free of charge!
The latest projection (from May 2024) can be found here.
EPP: 180 (-2)
S&D: 138 (-8)
ID: 68 (-5)
ECR: 75 (+13)
RE: 86 (-22)
G/EFA: 56 (-18)
LEFT: 39 (-2)
NI: 76 (+22)
Unaffiliated: 2 (+2)
+/- vs. 2019 EU Parliamentary Elections
Notable Changes (for May)
On the right of the political spectrum, Identity and Democracy (ID) has cannibalized its chances at third place with the expulsion of Alternative for German (AfD) after yet another Neo-Nazi scandal.
The national conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) now have 75 seats for the first time since June 2021. This is partly due to the uncertainty surrounding whether Hungary’s Fidesz and/or Romania’s Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) will join the group. The two parties are antagonistic towards each other — particularly over issues concerning Romania’s Hungarian minority — and it currently seems unlikely that AUR would join the ECR if Fidesz also becomes a member. Meanwhile more moderate members might leave if either is allowed to sit with the grouping.
European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State
Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union.
The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.
Notable Updates
No new official changes when it comes to the European Council, but that might change soon …
Lithuania: Gitanas Nausėda (*) was reelected as President of Lithuania on May 26. Lithuania is one of only four EU members where the President, instead of the Prime Minister, sits on the European Council.
North Macedonia: The Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE-EPP) and its allies won May’s national parliament and presidential elections. The VMRO-DPMNE-led alliance garnered 58 seats (just two short of a parliamentary majority) and its preferred candidate, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova defeated incumbent president Stevo Pendarovski in the presidential election’s second round.
Netherlands: It has been 192 days since Party for Freedom (PVV-ID) Senator Gom van Strien was nominated as (the first) scout to help form a new Dutch government. However, the end may finally be near. The PVV (ID), People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD-RE), New Social Contract (NSC→EPP), and the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB→EPP) have nominated former secretary-general of the Ministry of Justice and Security Hendrikus Shoof (a man also known as Tricky Dick) to be the Netherland’s next prime minister.
Electoral Calendar 2023/2024
Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up?
Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year.
https://europeelects.eu/calendar/
Some Upcoming elections
EU (Parliament): 6-9 June
Belgium (Parliament and regional): June 9
Bulgaria (Parliament): June 9
Recent elections
Check above for our summary of the Lithuanian and North Macedonian elections that happened this month.
Polling Highlights
Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls
In Turkey, the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP-*) has reached a new record high of 6.5 %in the latest MetroPOLL poll. The party finished third in nationwide results of the latest local elections, winning one metropolitan and one provincial capital.
Also in Turkey, the Republican People’s Party (CHP-S&D) has reached a new record high of 35.9% in the latest MetroPOLL poll. The party finished first in nationwide results of the latest local elections and is currently leading in general election polls ahead of the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP~NI).
In Bulgaria, the centrist alliance of We Continue the Change / Democratic Bulgaria (PP/DB-RE|EPP|G/EFA) falls to a record low of 13.7% in the latest Mediana poll.
Featured article
Take a look at our recent articles on Europe Elects and by our correspondents for Euractiv.
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