Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺
#3 — March 2024
What’s up, Europe? Ramadan Mubarak and Happy Easter to those celebrating. Europe’s massive election year is in full swing, so let’s get into it. But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:
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European Parliament (EP) seats projection
The next European Parliament election will happen between 6-9 June 2024. European citizens will once again elect the legislative body of the EU. With the last election having taken place back in 2019, we are certain to see substantial shifts in plenty of countries.
Europe Elects continues providing the most accurate projections of the next European Parliament—and doing so free of charge!
The latest projection (from March 2024) can be found here.
EPP: 184 (-3)
S&D: 135 (-12)
ID: 82 (+6)
ECR: 81 (+19)
RE: 87 (-11)
G/EFA: 52 (-22)
LEFT: 47 (+6)
NI: 48 (-9)
Unaffiliated: 4 (+4)
+/- vs. 2019 EU Parliamentary Elections
Notable Changes (for March)
On the right of the political spectrum, both groups suffered losses in March, with Identity and Democracy (ID) falling by 10 seats to 82, losing most of their gains of the last six months. The national conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) now have 81 seats, two fewer than last month.
ID is facing internal divisions ahead of this summer’s elections. Bulgaria’s Revival (V~NI) was said to be joining ID but has been removed from the list of additional parties, so we categorize them as non-inscrits again.
On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) are predicted to win 52 seats, three more than last month, while GUE/NGL (LEFT) is projected to get 47 seats, two more than in February.
European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State
Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union.
The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.
Notable Updates
Bulgaria: As part of a power-sharing agreement between We Continue the Change (PP-RE) and Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB-EPP), Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov (PP-RE) resigned 6 March. His expected replacement — Deputy Prime Minister Mariya Gabriel (GERB-EPP) — however withdrew her nomination 25 March. Bulgarians will now vote in new parliament elections — the sixth in three years. President Rumen Radev (*) will appoint a caretaker government and announce the election date in the coming days.
Malta: President George Vella (PL-S&D) will finish his term on 4 April. His replacement — former Speaker of the House of Representatives Myriam Spiteri Debono (PL-S&D) — will be inaugurated the same day.
Netherlands: It has been 128 days since Party for Freedom (PVV-ID) Senator Gom van Strien was nominated as (the first) scout to help form a new Dutch government. Van Strien isn’t around anymore, but Mark Rutte (VVD-RE) still is — although as a caretaker prime minister.
Electoral Calendar 2023/2024
Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up?
Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year.
https://europeelects.eu/calendar/
Some Upcoming elections
Slovakia (President — second round): 6 April
Croatia (National Parliament): 17 April
North Macedonia (President — first round): 24 April
Recent Elections
Portugal (National Parliament): Portugal will soon have a new right-wing prime minister. While it’s unclear what parties will actually make up the government (or how long it will last), Portugal’s recent election resulted in a marked rightward shift in its parliament.
Slovakia (President — first round): Slovakia will have a president election run-off after no candidate passed the 50 percent threshold. In a surprise result, frontrunner Peter Pellegrini (HLAS~S&D) came in second to independent candidate Ivan Korčok (*).
Polling Highlights
Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls
In Sweden, the centre-right Christian Democrats (KD-EPP) earned just 2.4% in an Indikator Opinion poll, the lowest result for KD in any poll since October 2016.
If repeated in a national parliament election, it would be KD's worst election result since 1982, below the 4%-threshold needed to have parliamentary representation.
In Croatia, with 19 days until national parliament elections, the governing centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-EPP) has hit a 17-month low of 31.6% on our polling average. The last time HDZ averaged below 32% was December 2022.
In Estonia, the right-wing Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE-ID) has hit 17% on our polling average — a three-year low. The last time EKRE averaged below 18% was January 2022.
In Germany, the Green Party (Grüne-G/EFA) continues to hit new lows on our polling average. The party currently sits at 12.59%, lower than at any time since 3 July 2018.
Featured article
Take a look at our recent articles on Europe Elects and by our correspondents for Euractiv.
⬇️⬇️⬇️
EU Parliamentary Projection: The End of the Rise of the Right?
Democracy in Crisis: Studies Show Continuing Global Trend Towards Autocracy
The communist resurrection in Austria (in Dutch)
Far-right and liberals continue tight race for third place: EU elections projection
Latest Podcast
Anti-Establishment Round-Up (w/ ThreeSixOne and Peter Beckett)