Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺
#6 — June 2024
What’s up, Europe? June has turned out to be a massive election month across the continent. We’ll cover some national elections and some bare-bones results from the European Parliament election. Next month, we’ll analyze the incoming EU parliament in-depth, including the new and potential groupings. But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:
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European Parliament (EP) seats projection
The European Parliament election has come and gone. Turnout across the EU was 51.06 percent, marginally higher than the 50.66 percent in 2019. Belgium had the highest turnout (possibly due to national and regional elections being held on the same day) at 89.82 percent, while Croatia (in only its second-ever EU election) saw just 21.35 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot.
More turnout data and electoral result information can be found here.
As you can see, the election’s biggest losers were the liberal Renew Europe group. The grouping lost a quarter of its seats and was replaced as the third force in the parliament by the European Conservatives and Reformists. This downward trend mirrors the headwinds faced by Renew’s member parties, such as Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance in France or Kaja Kallas’ Reform Party in Estonia.
While all the votes have been counted, the final composition of the EU parliament is yet to be decided, largely due to the high number of Non-inscrits members. These parliamentarians may choose to join an existing faction or may (as many have promised to do) form their own new grouping. We’ll explore that more in the next edition of our newsletter.
European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State
Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union.
The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.
Notable Updates
No new official changes when it comes to the European Council, but that might change soon …
Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas (RE-RE) has been nominated as the next High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, replacing Josep Borrell (PSOE-S&D). In turn, Kallas and her party have nominated Climate Minister Kristen Michal (RE-RE) as Estonia’s next Prime Minister.
Former Prime Minister of Portugal António Costa (PS-S&D) will succeed Charles Michel (MR-RE) as the next president of the European Council. Meanwhile Ursula von der Leyen (CDU-EPP) has been nominated to continue as president of the European Commission.
Prime Minister of Belgium Alexander De Croo (Open VLD-RE) resigned and is currently acting a caretaker prime minister following his party’s defeat in the 9 June election. Belgium has a history of long government formation so we’ll have to wait and see who might be his replacement.
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev (S&D) has asked Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB-EPP) to form a minority government following that country’s 9 June national election. Former parliament speaker Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB-EPP) is the prime minister designate.
Netherlands: It has been 222 days since Party for Freedom (PVV-ID) Senator Gom van Strien was nominated as (the first) scout to help form a new Dutch government. Last month, we said that the end may finally be near, but here we still are. Former secretary-general of the Ministry of Justice and Security Hendrikus Shoof (a man also known as Tricky Dick) is still waiting to be approved as the Netherlands’ next prime minister, and the current placeholder, Mark Rutte, has one foot out the door waiting to start his new job as NATO Secretary-General.
Electoral Calendar 2023/2024
Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up?
Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year.
https://europeelects.eu/calendar/
Some Upcoming elections
United Kingdom (Parliament): 4 July
France (Parliament — second round): 7 July
Recent elections
Because of all the elections happening this coming month and all the ones that just happened, our next edition will be a longer breakdown featuring contributions for some of our correspondents.
Polling Highlights
Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls
In Greece, the far-right Voice of Reason (FL->ECR) reached a new record high, with 3.8% in the latest GPO poll. The electoral threshold needed to receive representation in the parliament is 3%.
In Estonia, liberal Estonia200 (→EPP) has fallen to a five-year record low of 2.4% in the latest Norstat poll. If repeated in a national parliament election, this would be the party's worst result ever. Meanwhile, the right-wing Conservative People’s Party (EKRE-ID) has fallen to a five-year record low of 11.8% in the latest Norstat poll. If repeated in a national parliament election, this would be the party's worst result since 2015.
In Germany, the Greens (GRÜNE-Greens/EFA) have fallen to their lowest polling number since June 2018 — 11%, according to an INSA poll.
Featured article
Take a look at our recent articles on Europe Elects and our correspondents for Euractiv.
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