Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺
#4 — April 2024
What’s up, Europe? Only 37 days until the first day of the EU Parliament election. In the meantime, there are lots of national elections worth covering. But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:
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European Parliament (EP) seats projection
The next European Parliament election will happen between 6-9 June 2024. European citizens will once again elect the legislative body of the EU. With the last election having taken place back in 2019, we are certain to see substantial shifts in plenty of countries.
Europe Elects continues providing the most accurate projections of the next European Parliament—and doing so free of charge!
The latest projection (from April 2024) can be found through our partners at Euractiv here.
EPP: 183 (-4)
S&D: 140 (-7)
ID: 84 (+8)
ECR: 86 (+24)
RE: 86 (-12)
G/EFA: 48 (-26)
LEFT: 44 (+3)
NI: 48 (-9)
Unaffiliated: 1 (+1)
+/- vs. 2019 EU Parliamentary Elections
Notable Changes (for April)
On the right of the political spectrum, Identity and Democracy (ID) has recovered slightly since losing most of their gains of the last six months. The national conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) meanwhile now have 86 seats for the first time since September 2023.
On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) and GUE/NGL (LEFT) are back to down after seemingly arresting their decline last month. If the EU parliament elections were held today, the Greens are expected to lose an astonishing 26 seats or roughly 36 percent of their total representation.
European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State
Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union.
The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.
Notable Updates
Bulgaria: Following the collapse of a powersharing agreement between We Continue the Change (PP-RE) and Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB-EPP), President Rumen Radev (*) appointed a caretaker government led by Dimitar Glavchev (*) and announced national elections would run concurrently with the 9 June EU parliament elections.
Iceland: Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir of the Left-Green Movement (V~LEFT) stepped down this month and announced that she would be running in the country’s presidential election 1 June 2024. She was replaced as prime minister by Bjarni Benediktsson of the Independence Party (D-EPP).
Ireland: Following the defeat of two public referenda on the Irish Constitution, Leo Varadkar of Fine Gail (FG-EPP) resigned as Taoiseach this month. He was replaced by Simon Harris (FG-EPP), who, at 37, is the youngest ever Taoiseach.
Portugal: Luís Montenegro of the Social Democratic Party (PSD-EPP) was sworn in on April 2 as the head of Portugal’s new minority coalition government.
Netherlands: It has been 158 days since Party for Freedom (PVV-ID) Senator Gom van Strien was nominated as (the first) scout to help form a new Dutch government. Van Strien isn’t around anymore, but Mark Rutte (VVD-RE) still is — although as a caretaker prime minister.
Electoral Calendar 2023/2024
Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up?
Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year.
https://europeelects.eu/calendar/
Some Upcoming elections
North Macedonia (President — second round): 8 May
North Macedonia (Parliament): 8 May
Lithuania (President — first round): 12 May
Catalonia (Parliament): 12 May
Recent Elections
Slovakia (President — second round): While independent candidate Ivan Korčok (*) surprised many with his lead over Peter Pellegrini (HLAS~S&D) in the first round, it just wasn’t enough to win him the presidency. Pellegrini — who is seen as an ally of Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-*) — won with 53.12% in the second round and will become President of the Slovak Republic on 15 June 2024.
Croatia (National Parliament): The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-EPP) led its election coalition to a first-place finish in the parliament elections this month, garnering a 34.42 percent plurality. However, the party itself lost 7 seats, and the coalition’s result is ~3 points lower than what it received in 2020.
Polling Highlights
Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls
In Hungary, Prime Minister Victor Orbán’s Fidesz–Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz-NI) has plunged to a record low of 37 percent on our polling average. If repeated in an election, this would be Fidesz’s worst election result since 1998.
In Lithuania, the governing Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS LKD-EPP) is likewise at a record low. Despite earning 25.77 percent in the 2020 Lithuanian parliament elections, TS LKD is sitting at just 12.5 percent on our polling average. If repeated in an election, this would be the party’s worst election result since 2000.
Featured article
Take a look at our recent articles on Europe Elects and by our correspondents for Euractiv.
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