Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺
#16 — May and June 2025
After a short summer break, we’re back this month with a double edition. This time, we’re looking at the fallout from May’s “Super Tuesday” elections as well as June’s political developments in Poland, Portugal, Romania, Albania, Kosovo, and the Netherlands. But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:
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Albania Election Aftermath
ֵThe centre-left Socialist Party of Albania (PS-S&D) and incumbent Prime Minister Edi Rama (PS-S&D) cruised to a fourth-straight election national parliamentary win in May. The PS-led electoral alliance increased its seat share from 74 to 83 out of 140 parliamentary deputies. Three new small parties also entered parliament or increased their share of seats. The centre-right Opportunity Party (PM-*), whose founder, Agron Shehaj, was already a member of parliament when the party was established last year, gained one additional seat, while the centrist Albania Becomes Movement (LSHB-*) and the left-wing Together Movement (BASHKË~LEFT) each earned their first parliamentary seat.
However, the undisputed loser of the election was former Prime Minister Sali Berisha (PD-EPP) and his Democratic Party of Albania (PD-EPP), who will now have spent more than a decade in opposition. The party lost 9 seats.
An interesting note (that is outside the scope of this newsletter): Berisha’s campaign employed Chris LaCivita, Tony Fabrizio, and Paul Manafort. If you recognize those names, it is probably because the three of them were key figures in US President Donald Trump’s presidential campaigns. According to the AP, Berisha — who is currently barred by the US State Department from entering the country and hoping to have those sanctions reversed — has promised to “Make Albania Great Again.”
Poland Election Aftermath
At the beginning of June, Karol Nawrocki (*-ECR) beat Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski of the centre-right Civic Platform (PO-EPP) party in the second round of Poland’s presidential election. Nawrocki’s victory was a bit of an upset, as in the first round on May 18, Trzaskowski came in first with 31.36 percent of the vote to Nawrocki’s 29.54.
Going into the second round, both candidates scrambled to attract voters from other campaigns, especially supporters of the third-place candidate, Sławomir Mentzen, leader of the right-wing New Hope (NN-ESN) party. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki appeared on Mentzen’s podcast while Trzaskowski, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski (PO-EPP), and Mentzen were also spotted out drinking together at a pub.
While both campaigns increased their vote totals by more than 4 million each, and voter turnout grew by 4 percentage points between the rounds, Nawrocki clearly benefited more from former Mentzen’s voters. His vote share almost doubled in the second round, increasing by 21 percentage points, roughly equivalent to the first-round vote share of Mentzen and the fourth-place candidate, Grzegosz Braun, leader of the far-right Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP-*) party.
It’s unclear what Nawrocki’s election changes for the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk (PO-EPP), as his legislative agenda already faced the constant threat of veto by incumbent President Andrzej Duda (*-ECR). Tusk has just a 12-seat majority (242 out of 460 seats) in the Polish parliament and cannot override most vetoes as a result. Shortly after Nawrocki’s election, Tusk called for — and won — a vote of confidence in his government.
One fallout of the presidential election: the centre-right Polish People’s Party (PSL-EPP) and Szymon Hołownia’s centrist Poland 2050 (PL2050-RE), which form the Third Way coalition, have confirmed that they will run separately in the next elections. The two parties had run as part of a joint list since 2023, but maintained separate parliamentary clubs. They remain part of Donald Tusk’s government. Hołownia's run for president this year ended in a disappointing fifth place with just 4.99% of the first-round vote — an almost nine percentage point decrease from his previous run in 2020. The PSL, which is seen as the junior partner in the coalition, may have looked at Hołownia’s drop in support as well as recent polling placing the Third Way at less than half of its 2023 vote share and decided it had nothing more to gain from the arrangement.
Portugal Election Aftermath
Portugal’s incumbent centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD-EPP) managed to increase its vote total and seat share following a snap election in May. The vote had been brought on by the collapse of the minority cabinet of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro (PSD-EPP) following a vote of confidence that failed 137 to 87.
However, the real news out of this election was the continued collapse of Portugal’s left-leaning parties and the rise of right-wing Enough! (CH-PfE). The country’s two left-most parties, the Left Bloc (BE-LEFT) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP-LEFT), lost five of their nine cumulative seats, while the centre-left Socialist Party (PS-S&D) saw its second straight election loss in as many years. The PS shed another 20 mandates, bringing its total to just 58. For context, in 2022, the party had 120 seats in parliament. Meanwhile Enough! (CH-PfE) secured 60 seats — a 400% increase from its 2022 result.
Montenegro and the PSD will continue on as a minority government — this time with 11 additional seats for a total of 91 out of 230. However, how long the PSD will be able to hold on in the face of a collapsing left and an ascendant right is unclear.
Romania Election Aftermath
In an upset victory, Mayor of Bucharest and independent candidate Nicoșur Dan (*-RE) beat front-runner George Simion (AUR-ECR) in the second round of Romania’s presidential election on 18 May. As recently as 2 May (just two days before the first round), our polling average had Dan in third place and not making the second-round runoff. And even when Dan did make it to the next round, most polls had him down several points to Simion. However, the gap between the two candidates narrowed considerably in the days leading up to the election, and the race appeared to be a toss-up.
That’s not what happened.
Propelled by strong showings in nearly all Transylvanian counties and major urban areas such as Bucharest, Cluj, Iași, and Timișoara, Dan beat Simion by a whopping 7.2 percentage points. His victory reflected backing from more urbanized counties, as well as from areas with large populations of ethnic minorities. In the two counties with the highest proportion of ethnic minorities — Harghita and Covasna — Dan won 90.78 percent and 84.42 percent of the votes, respectively.
European Parliament (EP) seats projection
The next European Parliamentary election is still four years away, but in the meantime, we’ll keep updating our predictions. The latest projection can be found here.
EPP: 183 (-5)
S&D: 130 (-6)
PfE: 96 (+12)
ECR: 81 (+3)
RE: 78 (+1)
G/EFA: 36 (-17)
LEFT: 58 (+13)
NI: 21 (-12)
ESN: 35 (+10)
Unaffiliated: 2 (+2)
+/- vs. 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections
European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State
Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union.
The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.
Below, you can see the European Council's current composition, as well as its membership weighted by population.
Notable Updates
Kosovo: almost five months after parliamentary elections, Kosovo still hasn’t been able to elect a parliamentary speaker and, by extension, invest a new government. That isn’t for a lack of trying — as of 30 June, there have been 39 attempts by Acting Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s centre-left SELF-DETERMINATION Movement! (LVV-S&D) to get their candidate for speaker elected by a simple majority. The electoral math has made it difficult for LVV to form a coalition — or even do basic governing —despite emerging from February’s election as the largest party. Most major parties have ruled out cooperation with the LVV, leaving the party to try and cobble together a coalition from the various ethnic minority parties. As we mentioned in our previous issue, “even if LVV was able to bring on board every other single minority party, it would still be two seats short and would need support from the right-wing Serb List (LS~EPP) with whom (to put it nicely) it has a tense relationship.” The deadlock prompted the Constitutional Court to issue a ruling on 26 June ordering MPs to “fulfill their constitutional obligation for the constituting of the parliament of the Republic of Kosovo via the election of the parliamentary speaker and deputy speakers” within 30 days. However, the court did not specify what might happen if — or more likely when — Kosovo’s political parties fail to meet the order’s deadline.
Portugal: Luís Montenegro (PSD-EPP) and his new government were sworn in at the end of May, following the snap national parliament election held on 18 May. Backed by centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD-EPP) and centre-right CDS-People’s Party (CDS-EPP), this is Montenegro's second minority government, with these parties holding 91 out of 230 seats in Parliament.
Netherlands: early national parliament elections will be held in the Netherlands on Wednesday, 29 October, after Geert Wilders' right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV-PfE) withdrew from the government earlier in June, triggering its collapse. Wilders had proposed a ten-point immigration plan that would have seen the Dutch Army patrol the border to prevent people from seeking asylum in the Netherlands, temporarily freezing family reunification, and denaturalizing and deporting dual nationals who commit certain crimes. When the rest of the government coalition did not sign on to Wilders’ demands, the PVV announced that it would leave the government. It is worth noting that Wilders’ 10-point plan was unlikely to garner much support from other parties. The Wilders’ positions on immigration are to the right of most other parties, and the PVV itself only won 23.5% of the vote in the last election — a substantial portion, but far from a popular mandate. The incumbent government of Dick Schoof (*) is continuing in a caretaker role with support from the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD-RE), centre-right New Social Contract (NSC-EPP), and the agrarian Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB-EPP).
Romania: The government of Ilie Bolojan (PNL-EPP) won its investiture vote on 23 June by a vote of 301 in favor, nine against, and 154 abstaining. Bolojan’s cabinet is comprised of his centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL-EPP) as well as the centre-left Social Democratic Party (PSD-S&D), liberal Save Romania Union (USR-RE), and the centre-right Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR-EPP).
Electoral Calendar 2025/2026
Do you want to ensure you don't miss any major elections coming up?
Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year.
Some Upcoming Elections
No upcoming elections in July 2025
Polling Highlights
Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls.
Wider polls are hyperlinked below.
Austria: right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ-PfE) has a clear lead in our polling average with 34%, though this is slightly down from 36% at the beginning of the year. The governing centre-right People's Party (ÖVP-EPP) is narrowly in second place with 22%.
Croatia: the governing, centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-EPP) continues to lead in our polling average with 33%. However, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP-S&D) has risen to a narrower second place with 28%, up from 17% in 2023.
Czechia: far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD-ESN) reached a new record high in June’s NMS poll with 16.7% of the vote. If repeated in a national parliamentary election, it would be the party's best result since its founding in 2015. For the 2025 national parliamentary election, SPD is running on a joint list with Svobodní (~NI), Trikolora (~ESN), and PRO (*)
Finland: centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP-S&P) has risen to 25% in our polling average. This is the highest the party has polled since 2006. Meanwhile, national-conservative Finns Party (PS-ECR) has fallen sharply to 11%, a six-year low.
Italy: polling has largely remained stable over the past year. Giorgia Meloni's national-conservative Brothers of Italy (FdI-ECR) continues to lead in our polling average with 29%, while her governing coalition polls at a combined 47% - up from 44% in 2022.
Lithuania: the governing centre-left Social Democratic Party (LSDP-S&D) continues to lead in our polling average with 22%. The governing coalition, which also includes right-wing Dawn of Nemunas (NA~S&D) and centre-left Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” (DSVL-G/EFA), polls at a combined 52%.
Netherlands: centre-right New Social Contract (NSC-EPP) reached a record low of 0.8% and one seat in May’s Verian poll. Now, a June seat projection survey has the NSC winning zero seats — in essence, failing to earn at least 0.67% of the vote. The party was founded in late August 2023 by former leader Pieter Omtzigt and was the country's largest party, with around 19% in Europe Elects' polling average as late as October 2023.
Norway: the centre-right Conservative Party (H-EPP) fell to 13.9% in today's Opinion poll — the lowest polling result obtained by the party since 2009. If repeated in the next national parliament election, this would be the worst result in the party's 140-year history.
Spain: centre-right People's Party (PP-EPP) continues to lead in our polling average with 33%, 3pp ahead of the governing centre-left Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE-S&D). However, this is the lowest PP has polled in two years.
Türkiye: the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP-S&D) reached a new record high in a March TEAM poll: 40.0%. If repeated in an election, the party would pass 40% nationwide for the first time since 1977.
UK: a May Find Out Now poll puts Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform UK (REFORM~NI) on 33% of the vote, with a lead of 13pp over Keir Starmer's governing centre-left Labour Party (LAB-S&D). This is the highest the party has ever polled since it was formed in 2018.
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