Europe Elects Newsletter 🇪🇺

#8 — August 2024

What’s up, Europe? The excitement of the 2024 European elections has dissipated, and the summer election lull has ended. The second half of this year is packed with elections, so stay tuned! But first, if you’d like to encourage others to subscribe, please use this link:

Fundraiser Section 

Europe Elects: Empowering European Citizens

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The sum we are raising is needed to cover our most prioritised expenses. This amount will guarantee that Europe Elects can continue its current scope of action, as well as act towards expanding its mission of empowering European citizens.

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European Parliament (EP) seats projection

It’s been a little over two months since the 2024 European Elections — so clearly it’s time to look toward the next one in 2029.

The latest projection can be found here.

EPP: 186 (-2)

S&D: 140 (+4)

PfE: 92 (+8)

ECR: 80 (+2)

RE: 72 (-5)

G/EFA: 44 (-9)

LEFT: 45 (-)

NI: 32 (-1)

ESN: 26 (+1)

Unaffiliated: 3 (+3)

+/- vs. 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections

European Council (EUCO) tracking + Other European Heads of State 

Europe Elects does not limit its coverage of EU politics to the European Parliament. Being composed of 27 political leaders from the entire continent, the European Council is an entity shaping the political priorities of the Union. 

The Council’s composition changes much more frequently than the Parliament’s—and thanks to our coverage, you can see the timeline of those dynamic shifts at any moment here.

Below, you can see the European Council's current composition, as well as its membership weighted by population.

Notable Updates 

• Belgium: The first round of government formation negotiations have collapsed in Belgium. Bart De Wever (N VA-ECR) returned his assignment of formateur 22 August and Maxime Prévot (LE-RE) was appointed as his successor on 23 August. Belgium is no stranger to long and difficult government formations — the country’s 2010–2011 government formation lasted 541 days.

• Bulgaria: After There Is Such a People (ITN-ECR) failed to form a government—after both Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB-EPP) and We Continue the Change (PP-RE) were unable to do so—Bulgarians will return to the ballot box for the seventh time since 4 April 2021. Typically, an interim government would be formed, and since the country is currently led by the interim administration of PM Dimitar Glavchev (*), Bulgaria would have seen the transition of power between two interim governments. Would is the operative word here because, despite President Radev (*) appointing Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva as the new prime minister on 9 August, the two fell out almost immediately over the proposed inclusion of Kalin Stoyanov as Minister of the Interior — despite Stoyanov serving in that position under Glavchev. Radev then decided to renominate Glavchev as Prime Minister, and a second Glavchev government (with Stoyanov no longer included) was sworn in on 27 August. The next Bulgarian parliament elections will be on 27 October 2024.

Electoral Calendar 2023/2024

Do you want to be sure not to miss any major election coming up? 

Europe Elects doesn’t want you to either! Check out our publicly available electoral calendar for the upcoming year. 

https://europeelects.eu/calendar/

Some Upcoming elections

• Azerbaijan (National parliament): 1 September

• Germany (Regional parliament — Saxony, Thuringia): 1 September

• Russia (Regional parliament — multiple): 8 September

• Czechia (Regional parliament — multiple): 20-21 September

• Germany (Regional parliament — Brandenburg): 22 September

• Austria (National parliament): 29 September

Polling Highlights 

Want to stay informed about any polls published across the continent? Check out Europe Elects' Polling average to keep up with all the latest polls. 

• Estonia: Back in March, our polling average had the right-wing Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE-PfE) party at 17% — at the time, the party’s lowest average in three years. Since then, EKRE’s popular support has continued to fall. The latest Kantar Emor poll puts the party at just 9.9%t. — the lowest polling result obtained by the party since April 2017 and a 41% drop in just five months.

• Greece: Centre-right New Democracy (ND-EPP) has fallen to 26.5% while left-wing SYRIZA (LEFT) also fell to 9.9% in the latest Interview poll. If repeated in an election, it would be each party’s lowest result in a national parliament election since May 2012 and 2009, respectively. Meanwhile, far-right Voice of Reason (FL -PfE) has reached an all-time record high of 4.8%.

• Iceland: The Left-Green Movement (V~LEFT) has fallen to 3.4% in the latest Gallup poll. This is the lowest poll result for V ever. If repeated in a national parliament election, Vinstrihreyfingin would fall well short of the 5% threshold for parliament entry, receiving 0 seats, its worst-ever performance. Meanwhile, the centre-right Centre Party (M~EPP|RE) has risen to 16.0% — its highest poll result ever.

• Lithuania: Right-wing Dawn of Nemunas (NA-*) has reached a record high of 17% in the latest Spinter Tyrimai poll. The party, which was founded in November 2023 and registered January 2024, was founded by former centre-right Freedom and Justice (LT~RE) chairman Remigijus Žemaitaitis after he was expelled from LT for several antisemitic statements.

• Türkiye: Centre-right Good Party (İYİ~RE) has reached a new record low in the latest PanoramaTR poll: 1.7%. Like EKRE in Estonia, İYİ’s collapse has been steep. The party earned 9.69% in the 2023 parliament elections and was at 6.9% on our polling average in January 2024.

Latest Podcast 

What’s next for 2024 : Europe Elect’s Mid Year Preview

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